An Econo-Legal Rant.

Demand is the problem. International Central Banks lower interest rates to zero or below. They aim for two percent inflation so people will have the incentive to purchase soon before prices rise.

We live in an Economy that is based on Consumer Demand. China has benefited from this by taking built-in obsolescence to an extreme with quickly broken or unsuitable products. The Chinese Economy is now dependent on World Demand, and that is based on the need for ordinary people to want to consume. It is rubbish. Most people can live very cheaply if they are not pretentious and do not try and live like Middle Class copies of a largely mythical Upper Class.

This will not be the end of the Free-Enterprise Economic System, but an extension of it, in particular at a local, interpersonal level compared to the Institutional level of previous centuries. It will be more like Anarchy with micro-social-stability, energy-exchange systems, but it won’t be an Autocracy of a self-selected Elite, whether they follow the old, wrong Monetary policies, or they let interest rates escape from the burden of being classed as Usury, and hence inherently wrong.

Perhaps, a zero interest rate is indeed the correct standard, with positive and negative interest rates in different places that balance out. So this way, big institutions can be hit with low interest rates, while small investors and pension funds will benefit from high interest rates. It is possible to make all the goods and services that everyone in the world needs with only a small fraction of the population needing to do the work. However, we have developed the Social Prejudices that were inherent in the Working Class ethos of everyone earning their keep. Perhaps in the old days it was helping with the harvest or building something big. Everyone deserves a free, basic income. We can no longer rely on work as the measure of the distribution of income. Also, we must get away from the idea of a 'home' in order to end 'homelessness'.

If the world suddenly moves into such a phase, which could happen quite suddenly, like a giant quantum leap, what will happen to share-prices, particularly bank shares? They will drop to very little. Why do I still own Bank Shares? Indeed, why did I buy more from recent Property sales? I am my own worst enemy if I do not take my own advice and sell now at a small loss instead of hanging on and losing all.

We are about to see an end to ‘The Rule of Law’. It has failed. The Criminal Justice System has become degenerate. The Rule of Law exists for the purpose of delivering Justice, and was not intended as an end in itself. Finally it has become exposed through the Northern Territory’s inhumane concept of ‘punishment’ rather than rehabilitation or recognising Traditional Law. The Criminal Justice System has been a profitable growth-industry for too long benefiting a few handsomely at the expense of many.

Instead of everyone turning quickly into degenerate savages, life would go on much the same with local issues dealt with locally, but with a freedom from State issues, as the State would have shrunk, not in size but in density. After the official, central control of the Roman Empire, life went on just as it had for many hundreds of years, through what is sometimes called 'the dark ages', and in the same way our societies have been 'democratic' for long enough now to survive without the central control.

All this can happen very quickly. There is a branch of Mathematics called Catastrophe Theory that explains why there can be a sudden jump in Energy Level with no apparent in-between passage. Within the Atom it is called a Quantum Leap, but it also exists at many other Scales of magnitude including Social Systems that can appear to vary in small degrees round averages that have feed-back mechanisms and is stable over a lot of fluctuations. Very suddenly what was a large amount by usual standards becomes a small amount by a new standard that appears to be a complete break with the past. The Maths require the additional, Complex dimension measured by ' i ', the virtual unit that is the square root of negative unity.

Zero Interest rates would comply with Sharia where a net positive interest rate is forbidden. We are experiencing the consequences of these Economic Policies and more important the Legal Systems that accompany them, and most people are becoming less well off. The problem is Systemic and it would be wrong to apportion blame to individuals who are only living according the the way their Social System expects of them. That is zero on average, charging the wealthy and giving to the poor.

Welcome to the Future.

Years ago, while huddled in what I thought was my imminent death bed, I hoped to live into the twenty-twenties because I thought that decade for the last few centuries seemed to presage what the whole century would look like.  At the start of the last century, cars, planes, moving pictures and phones had all started, but in a simple, minimalist version compared to how the century ended.  Looking back at the History of the last few centuries, the second decade of each century seems to be a transitive one, as though dozens overlap to form tens. 

How hysterical that Mr Trump’s Wife’s speech was purloined from Mrs Obama’s speech of eight years ago.  The Trumps are probably not to blame as the speech would have been written for her, apparently by idiots; some apprentice will be sacked soon.  Mr Trump is looking more like the inevitable winner every day.  Hi is riding above a chaotic shamble of all the organisations and social groupings that he leaves in disarray, just like a surfer catching a wave and riding above the turbulence of everyone else left behind his endless, upward trajectory.

We are suddenly seeing how different the new millennium is starting out to be from the way things were in the last few centuries of the last millennium.  A Trump-led America would be a very different place, especially teamed up across The Atlantic with a United Kingdom that is freed from Europe and perhaps also including all the Irish Counties south of the border in a United Ireland within the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland.

The new British Prime Minister, Mrs May, has made it clear that while Brexit means Brexit, it will not happen without the full co-operation of Scotland and Northern Ireland as Brexit will not happen if it means the end of the United Kingdom.  This has never been clearly spelt out.  There must be some irony that has so far gone un-noticed in the result of the Brexit Vote, that may turn out to be the best thing for Britain, Europe and the rest of the Commonwealth. 

Turkey is on the verge of making itself ineligible to join the European Union by using Capital Punishment, as sanctioned in the Koran, but no longer considered Politically Correct in Brussels, Paris and Berlin.  Turkey and Australia have a bond sealed with blood, and a Turkey outside the EU but close to Commonwealth countries could become an important ally in our war against Religious Fanaticism. 

It would appear that Global Warming is a genuine phenomenon that needs to be addressed.  The great ironic tragedy of this issue is that it has become politicised.  Saving the Planet has become allied with the generality of Left causes.  A contract has developed between the Goddess of Society and Gaya, the Earth Goddess, promising that after The Revolution, when the Left has won the Class Warfare and ended the power of the wealthy, ruling elite, then policies will be instituted to save the environment, just as the dedicated Environmental Activists predict.  The consequence of this can be deduced from the way that different Social Groups develop a Group Psyche with its own sets of values that are not only different from that of other Social Groups, but might also not be universally held by all the individuals that make up the Group in Question.  Logical debate that tries to win over individuals within a social group cannot change the Group Psyche and the consequence is sometimes quite irrational positions on important issues that are held because they are necessary parts of the position held by that social group, and not necessarily belonging to all or even most of the individuals within the group.  Once the Environment was politicised in this way, it became an act of faith that it was wrong to the political opponents.  Without universal support we are doomed.   

Environmentalists must start to envisage a world that is lost by the Left in their pseudo-Class-Warfare, and accept a Conservative State, like Patrician Rome if it had worked out as planned without mega-egos getting in the way.  The Environment cannot continue to be the issue that will prove the end of the fight for Social Control, because even if Mr Trump does not win the Presidential Election for Leader of the West (in the Historically inevitable final showdown between East and West that has been brewing for centuries) Social trends appear to be moving in that direction over long time-scales.  Sometimes the great Earthquake is deferred for a few centuries by small, local quakes that relieve the tension in some part or other of the shifting Crust of the Earth, but eventually the underlying motion is too widespread and deep to survive with tiny corrections, and so then the big quake occurs.  Social change may be similar.  This is the issue that could end Class Warfare and begin a universal, harmonious, global society that accepts individual differences and rights, and where the different Social Groups within our wider societal structures accept each other without conflict. 

Naum Tered

20 July 2016